Split-ticket history could stop wave in New Hampshire

By HOLLY RAMER
Associated Press
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — With its 18 measly miles of coastline, New Hampshire doesn’t attract many surfers. And while a blue wave is possible Nov. 6, the state also has a significant history of split-ticket voting.

Voters have picked one party for governor and the other for their members of Congress in five of the past 11 elections, most recently in 2016, when Republican Chris Sununu won his first term as governor and three Democrats were sent to Washington. The opposite scenario played out in the other four split elections, with Democrats winning the governor’s race and Republicans sweeping the U.S. House and Senate seats.

And so while a new president’s party traditionally takes a hit in the midterms, New Hampshire could buck that trend, said Dean Spiliotes, political analyst and scientist at Southern New Hampshire University.

“The name of the game has been figuring out, in a place like New Hampshire that has a reputation as a swing state, how big is that going to be here?” he said. “In a state where you have a completely Democratic congressional delegation and a Republican legislature and governor, how is that all going to shake out?”

Democrat Molly Kelly, a former state senator, is challenging Sununu in the governor’s race. Republican Eddie Edwards faces Democrat Chris Pappas for an open seat in the 1st Congressional District, which has flipped between the two parties five times since 2006. And U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster, a Democrat, faces Republican state Rep. Steve Negron as she seeks a fourth term in the 2nd District.

While the GOP holds an advantage in voter registration, those unaffiliated with either party make up 40 percent of registered voters in New Hampshire, and they don’t have a problem splitting tickets, said Wayne Lesperance, political science professor at New England College.

“That gives them the luxury of really focusing in on the candidate and the message,” he said. “You have incumbent governor who’s very popular, so folks are facing a tough choice. I think the framing for them is, ‘Are we evaluating this governor on his own merits, or is there some connection to a message we want to send about the broader national landscape?'”

Kelly is hoping to become the state’s third female elected governor by following a familiar path. Fellow Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan — both U.S. senators — also served stints in the state Senate before becoming governor. Kelly often highlights her background as a former single mother who put herself through college, criticizes Sununu for calling paid family medical leave a “vacation,” and says he cannot be counted on to protect women’s reproductive rights.

“We know that women will no longer be silenced, and I think their voice in these elections is going to be strong,” she said, though she said she is not relying on women alone.

“I think that’s great, but we are working for every single vote, every vote we can, and there are many, many issues voters are concerned about,” Kelly said in an interview. “What happens nationally certainly affects what happens here in the state, but I am talking every day about the clear differences between Chris Sununu and myself.”

Sununu, meanwhile, touts the state’s strong economy and low unemployment rate, and progress made on combatting the opioid crisis and reforming the state’s mental health and child welfare systems. And he has history on his side — only two governors in the past 100 years have run for re-election and lost after a single term.

“It’s an exciting time,” he said in a recent debate. “We’ve got the right teams in place, and we’re excited to move forward.”

While Kuster holds comfortable leads in both polling and fundraising in the 2nd District, the 1st District is more volatile. Edwards, a former police chief and former state liquor commission official, criticizes Pappas as a career politician and part of a resistance movement to oppose President Donald Trump.

“Traditional politicians are about building power. In the military, one of the first things you learn is to train someone to take your spot,” Edwards, a Navy veteran, said in an interview. “You don’t find that it in politics. You find folks who are trained to maintain their seat at all cost, and I think that has served as a disservice to our nation.”

Though Edwards would be the state’s first black member of Congress, he said focusing on race was divisive, and instead emphasized his character and integrity. That has put him in a difficult spot given his support for Trump, Lesperance said.

“If we were to describe his candidacy, we’d call it a biography candidacy: someone who’s served in the military, served honorably, been involved in law enforcement. He’d really like to play up those credentials, and that life experience as a person of integrity and moral character,” he said. “And yet he doesn’t want to appear to be disloyal or questioning of the president. … But that’s what makes his candidacy so complicated. It’s not easy to run the campaign he wants to run because of that national context.”

Pappas, who would be the state’s first openly gay member of Congress, runs a family restaurant and currently serves on the governor’s Executive Council. He said Edwards holds “dangerous” views that would undermine progress on health care, environmental protections and reproductive rights. And while he, too, talks about bringing decency to Washington, he said he has the experience to back that up.

“This isn’t a theoretical discussion for me,” he said. “I’ve actually worked across the aisle and can point to results from my time as an executive councilor. I’ve run a local business, I understand the pressures of the business world and also what it means to look out for working people in our state.”