Opinion

Granite Geek: As classes return, so does uncertainty

By David Brooks
By David Brooks

As COVID-19 rears its ugly head yet again – fourth time? fifth? I’ve lost count – the big uncertainty facing New Hampshire will be the effect of a new school year.

You knew that already since it was also the big uncertainty a year ago. But things are even more uncertain this time because of vaccination.

We have fallen short of where we should be: Only about 55% of the state is fully vaccinated and barely one-third of the 12-19 population is protected. In Concord, according to state figures, 44% of the 12-19 group is fully vaccinated, which is pretty good by state standards but not much protection if you’re stuck in a classroom with two dozen of these kids.

Then there’s the Delta variant, which makes even fully vaccinated people like me nervous as new cases and hospitalizations in the state soar and the number of deaths starts to rise.

Some New Hampshire hospitals are re-instituting limits on visitors and starting to put limits on elective surgeries to free up beds for all the COVID-19 patients.

Even so, vaccination means everything is less scary than when entering the school year of 2020. The question is, how much better shape are we in and how should that affect decisions going forward?

A personal comment: I just told the New Hampshire Press Association that barring a miracle, no way I’m getting into a room with 100-plus strangers this fall for an annual awards banquet. I’m also not going to a friend’s October wedding celebration that was delayed from last year.

From that point of view, it’s crazy to bring students back to schools and colleges this year, especially since it appears the Delta variant makes COVID-19 more of a problem for younger people.

There’s no question that if schools and universities do bring students back they need to impose the most stringent rules of complete masking and frequent testing and closing when necessary. Otherwise it’s the Florida route to laissez-faire disaster.

But whether to have in-person schooling at all – that’s more complicated.

We do have to consider the staggering disruption for students of all ages facing a third disrupted school year. I have as much sympathy for the teachers and professors and staff and administrators who are wrestling with the same disruption, compounded by blowback from confused parents and the culture warriors who are piling on.

It’s easy for those of us without family members in school any longer to say that everything should go online until COVID-19 is over, but it may never really be over. At some point we’ll have to bite the bullet.

A month ago I assumed this fall was the time to do it. Now I’m not so sure.

How are we doing on vaccinations?A little bit better – a very little bit.

There are hints that the worsening situation is prodding more people to get the jab: The state’s official tally added almost 5,000 cases in the past two weeks, compared to 2, 700 in the two prior weeks. But the curve is still depressingly flat.

What’s the trend on the disease?Right back where we were in the spring.

As of today, the two-week average of new cases is up to 253, the level of mid-May, and has almost doubled in two weeks. Hospitalizations are the highest level since late April and slightly more than one person a day is now dying of COVID-19, compared to just two deaths a week at the start of the month.

David Brooks is the writer of the sci/tech column Granite Geek and blog granitegeek.org, as well as moderator of the monthly Science Cafe Concord events. After obtaining a bachelor’s degree in mathematics he became a newspaperman, working in Virginia and Tennessee before spending 28 years at the Nashua Telegraph. He lives in Mont Vernon with his wife, Shelley, a veterinarian; their two children are grown.

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